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What are the odds that the HBA, Gazette AND Suthers all picked the exact same candidates to endorse?
We have been remarking at how bizarre it seems that the HBA, The Gazette AND Suthers all picked the EXACT same slate of candidates to endorse. So, for fun, we thought we'd do a little math and calculate those odds so the people can see how unusual it is. Note: we understand that all things are not equal and candidates/party affiliation/puppetry factor into endorsements, but it's still a fun exercise, and we break it down a couple ways. Follow the money. Enjoy!
Mayor
12 Candidates
At-large Council
11 Candidates
District 3 Council
1/12
x
= 1/3,960
1/165*
* 11!/(11-3)!X3!
x
1/2
So, there are 3,960 possible combinations of candidates. The probability that the HBA, the Gazette and John Suthers would all endorse the exact same candidates is:
1/3,960
x
x
1/3,960
1/3,960
= ODDS OF ONE IN 62,099,136,000
ONE IN 62 Billion
Just to underscore the absurdity of these identical endorsements, let's assume there are only 5 viable mayoral candidates and 7 viable At-large candidates and 2 D3. In that scenario, the odds are 1/42,875,000. So, 1 in 43 million. If we bring it down to 3 viable mayoral candidates and 5 At-large candidates and 2D 3, the number is 1/216,000, or 1 in 216,000 odds of their picks being identical.
If that doesn't tell you how troubling it is that the HBA, the Gazette and John Suthers all endorse the exact same candidates, we don't know what will. Why do you think they are identical? Could it be that the game is rigged?
We recommend you VOTE AGAINST the HBA/Gazette/Suthers endorsed candidates. Those are:
Wayne Williams - Mayor
Lynette Crow-Iverson - At-large
Brian Risley - At-large
David Leinweber - At-large
Michelle Talarico - District 3